SAN FRANCISCO - Rainstorms forecast to rage during this winter’s “Godzilla” El Niño could release damaging mudslides on drought-dried and fire-scarred landscapes in the Bay Area and through much of California, geologists and meteorologists warn.

Swaths of land near homes and roadways where fires rolled through this summer are particularly vulnerable, but the hills and mountains of the Bay Area, including the Oakland hills and much of Marin County, are also in danger if projected rains materialize, according to the California Geological Survey.

Forecasters say conditions over the next few months are expected to be similar to the winters of 1997-98 and 1982-83, when record storms pounded California, causing massive flooding and numerous mudslides.

Northern California is susceptible to landslides even without fire. But infernos that raged through Lake, Napa and Sonoma counties have combined with four years of drought to kill trees, strip away vegetation and leave hillsides bare, a recipe for ground slippage during the kinds of gully washers expected this winter.

“It is a real concern this year,” said Mark Strudley, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service. “You get debris flows with or without fires, but you get them more often with fire. I think the difference is that we’ve got a lot more burned area than we did last year.”

A map created in 2011 by the California Geological Survey identified the mountainous regions on the North Coast between Sonoma County and Oregon and the Coast Range between San Francisco and Los Angeles as danger spots for mudslides. About two-thirds of Marin and Sonoma counties, the Santa Cruz Mountains and the East Bay hills were also named high-hazard areas. (Source: San Francisco Chronicle)

Story Date: December 8, 2015