SOUTHLAND - (INT) - Strong earthquakes are almost a certainty in California in the next three decades, scientists are saying. And the chances of a megaquake? They have nearly doubled since 2008.

According to a report released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the chances of California experiencing a megaquake in the next 30 years increased from 4.7 percent to 7 percent. The forecast nearly doubled due to the USGS taking into consideration recently discovered fault lines and the fact that two or more fault lines could show seismic activity at one time (the quake jumping from fault to fault). Such an occurrence would result in a release of greater energy, producing a catastrophic earthquake event (magnitude 8.0 or higher), causing more damage.

"California is earthquake country, and residents should live every day like it could be the day of a big one," USGS geophysicist and lead author Ned Field said. Especially in southern California along the San Andreas Fault, because that particular fault is "ready to have an earthquake because it's really locked and loaded," placed as it is between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates.

But it is the southern segment of the San Andreas Fault -- which runs from central California to the Salton Sea near the U.S.-Mexico border -- that remains the greatest threat because it is simply due to rupture, something it hasn't done in more than 300 years.

The report found there is a 19 percent chance in the next 30 years that a Northridge-size quake will unzip the southern section compared to a 6.4 percent chance for the northern section, partly because it last broke in 1906. Scientists are virtually certain that California will be rocked by a strong earthquake in the next 30 years. Now they say the risk of a mega-quake is more likely than previously thought.

Story Date: May 30, 2016