The number of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States in 2015 fell below the total at the end of the Great Recession for the first time, with Mexicans continuing to represent a declining share of this population, according to new Pew Research Center estimates based on government data.

There were 11 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2015, a small but statistically significant decline from the Center’s estimate of 11.3 million for 2009, the last year of the Great Recession.

The Center’s preliminary estimate of the unauthorized immigrant population in 2016 is 11.3 million, which is statistically no different from the 2009 or 2015 estimates.

Mexicans have long been the largest origin group among unauthorized immigrants, and the majority for at least a decade, but their numbers have been shrinking since peaking at 6.9 million, or 57% of the total, in 2007.

In 2014, they numbered 5.8 million (52% of the total). In 2015, according to the Center’s new estimate, they declined to 5.6 million, or 51% of the total. And in 2016, according to the Center’s preliminary estimate, the number of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico was the same, but their share fell to 50% of the total, marking the first time since at least 2005 that Mexicans did not account for a majority of the unauthorized immigrant population.

As the number of Mexicans has decreased, the number of unauthorized immigrants from other parts of the world has increased. The estimated number from countries other than Mexico declined from 5.3 million in 2007 to 5 million in 2009, but grew after that, reaching 5.4 million in 2015 and 5.7 million in the preliminary 2016 estimate.

Central America and Asia are the second and third most common birth regions for unauthorized immigrants in the U.S., after Mexico. From 2009 to 2015, the number of unauthorized immigrants from both regions increased (including a rise in the Asian total from 1.4 million in 2014 to 1.5 million in 2015).

The estimated number of unauthorized immigrants from South America declined somewhat from 2009 to 2015, and there was no statistically significant change in the populations of unauthorized immigrants from other regions.

The Center’s 2016 preliminary estimates are based on census data from March 2016, in the last year of President Barack Obama’s second term. Because these estimates date from before President Donald Trump took office in January, they do not account for the impact of any of his announced policy changes, including promises of expanded border protection and increased actions against unauthorized immigrants.

However, a more recent data source about unauthorized immigration, the number of apprehensions at the Southwest border, fell in January, February and March after ticking upward last spring and fall, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics. (INT)

Story Date: April 26, 2017