March 29, 2024
Scientists have a forecast for the rest of California’s fire season.
WASHINGTON--Bad news for the West: Even after firefighters have already battled 101 large blazes this year, the remainder of wildfire season is expected to be hotter and drier than normal, virtually assuring there will be more destruction ahead, scientists for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

NOAA’s forecast comes as monitoring stations in Northern California show that grasses, brush and other fire “fuels” are reaching record-dry levels, following a July that was the state’s hottest month on record. There’s also a chance that strong “Diablo winds,” like those that fanned the deadly fires last fall in Sonoma and other counties, could return in coming months.

“During August we typically don’t see those events, but they can return in the September and October time frame,” said Tim Brown, director of NOAA’s Western Region Climate Center in Reno, Nevada.

Diablo winds refer to a wind from the northeast that compresses and warms as it blows over ridge tops and down slopes. Suburban homeowners can partially protect themselves in advance by clearing brush and dead limbs from around houses. Authorities say they should also pay attention to wind forecasts, avoiding yard work, which can ignite sparks, during strong winds.

As of Thursday, there were eight major fires burning in California, including the 364,000-acre Mendocino Complex blaze, the largest wildfire in California history, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. More than 80 others were burning nationwide, including 17 in Alaska, 15 in Montana, 13 in Arizona, 11 in Idaho and 9 in Washington state.

The multitude of blazes has renewed debate on the degree that global climate change is intensifying the West’s natural patterns of drought and fire. In a recent commentary, three leading climate and fire scientists, Daniel Swain, Crystal Kolden and John Abatzoglou, called climate change a “threat multiplier” that has lengthened the fire season and contributed to more-explosive blazes.

The interior secretary rejected the climate change link.

“This has nothing to do with climate change,” Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke told KQED on Sunday, referring to California’s recent wildfires. “This has to do with active forest management.”

Yet several of the West’s most destructive recent blazes have occurred in places where forest management doesn’t occur. These include the Tubbs fire in Sonoma and Napa counties last year, which raged through suburbs and oak grasslands, as opposed to forests where land managers have the option of thinning trees and brush.

NOAA scientists did not use the term “climate change,” in a briefing with reporters on Thursday, but they presented data that documents the trend. A chart they shared showed how overnight low temperatures in California during July have markedly risen since the year 2000.

For firefighters in the West, nighttime offers a chance to contain and extinguish fires, because humidity levels generally rise then, making “fuels” less flammable. (Source: McClatchy)
Story Date: August 20, 2018
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