March 29, 2024
Rising sea levels could be more than twice as bad as expected, threatening cities including New York
Rising sea levels may be twice as bad as expected, threatening major coastal cities including New York, London and Shanghai, according to a new study.

The study, published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, used “temperature trajectories rather than emissions scenarios” to estimate changes in global ice sheets and ocean levels.

Scientists estimated a likely range of oceanic contributions from ice sheets at a 5-95% estimate range based on global temperature increases, as projections of rising sea levels have become uncertain since the 2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

While previous predictions from the AR5 estimated sea levels could rise around 1 meter, or roughly 39 inches, by 2100, the new study says sea level rises could potentially exceed 2 meters.

This is double previous estimates from the AR5 in the next 80 years.

By 2100, up to 187 million people could be displaced because of a 1.79 million square kilometer land loss, equivalent to a little over 1 million square miles.

This is equivalent to around 2.4% of the current global population. Coastal cities, like New York, London and Shanghai, could see the most impact from rising sea levels.

In the next 31 years, by 2050, ice sheet contributions could fall in the “likely range” from 10 to 12 cm , or roughly 3.9 to 4.7 inches. Just 50 years later in 2100, potential projections estimated the numbers to grow from 26 to 51 cm, or around 10.2 to 20 inches.

At the 95% estimates, global sea levels could rise by 7.50 meters, or around 24.6 feet. Just 100 years later, levels could rise up to 22 meters, or more than 72 feet.

The study’s authors warned of the potential implications if global temperatures, and sea levels, continue to rise.

Authors warned rising sea levels “threatens coastal communities and ecosystems worldwide."

The authors urged changes to account for the increasing 3 mm, or 0.12 inch, yearly rise in sea levels, which is progressively worsening.

“Adaptation measures accounting for the changing hazard, including building or raising permanent or movable structures such as surge barriers and sea walls, enhancing nature-based defenses such as wetlands, and selective retreat of populations and facilities from areas threatened by episodic flooding or permanent inundation, are being planned or implemented in several countries,” the study said.

Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Bristol and the study’s lead author, Jonathan Bamber, emphasized human action will affect the continuously rising sea levels.

“What we decide to do collectively as a species politically, globally, over the next decade is going to determine the future of the next generations in terms of the habitability of the planet and what sort of environment they live in,” Bamber told CNN.

Although the worst-case scenario was estimated at a 5% likelihood, it should not be ignored, authors said. (Source: The New York Daily News)
Story Date: May 22, 2019
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