March 28, 2024
K-12 student enrollment poses challenges, surprises
SACRAMENTO – (INT) – New projections suggest that California’s public K–12 school system is entering a long period of declining enrollment.

The California Department of Finance (DOF) predicts suggest that by 2027–28, statewide enrollment is projected to fall nearly 7 percent (compared to 1.5% over the past decade). Enrollment is projected to shrink in about half of all counties, and declines are expected in more of the state’s larger counties.

Riverside County’s K-12 enrollment is likely to peak in 2022 before falling by about 1 percent during the following 5-years.

San Bernardino County’s enrollment which has already been in decline could actually gain 2 percent by 2027-28.

Districts with declining enrollment face fiscal pressures, as state funding is tied to the number of students they serve.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) noted at least one silver lining. With continued economic growth, lower enrollment could result in funding increases for K–12 schools of up to $100 per student in each of the next several years. The reduction in the K–12 population will increase per pupil funding under Proposition 98, giving state policymakers additional resources to help districts facing multiple fiscal challenges.
Story Date: March 17, 2020
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